As the day's approach and the US election mood heats up, we’re tracking the latest news for you and the latest polling in 8 states that could be impactful in the outcome. The latest news is that Joe Biden is leading Trump in the national polls. However, this doesn’t bring a clean win for Obama’s vice president and the Democratic candidate.
Remember in the last campaigns and elections, Hillary Clinton had a clear lead overtrump and ended up losing in the Electoral College. This is mainly because the American presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes. This goes to the state’s victory regardless of the margin of the victory. Some swing states will have a high impact on the outcome and that’s why they are mainly a target by the campaigners. National polls are an effective guide of how popular a candidate is across the country.
However, these are not necessarily a good way to predict the results and the outcomes of the 2020 US General elections. Leaving that Caveat aside, Joe Biden is today ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls. This has been the trend since the start of the year. Recently, Joe Biden has reaped a 10% lead over Donald Trump.
Which States might decide this election?
According to the US Electoral system, the number of votes is not as important as where you win them. This is clearly indicating that some states have more impact than others when it comes to deciding the outcome of the elections. As the Clinton trend in 2016 exposed, some states nearly vote the same way and for that reason, the same states that decided the final outcome have the same chances in 2020. These are what are regarded to as the Battleground States.
So, where are the Battleground states in the 2020 US elections?
Each state according to the US Electoral system is given a number of votes depending on the number of members it sends to the congress House and the Senate. There are a total of 538 Electoral votes that are up for the grab and whoever between Donald Trump and Joe Bidden will take 270 votes will win.
Some Battleground states have a lot more Electoral College votes than others and that’s why the candidates spend most of their time campaigning in these states. At the moment, the polls in the Battleground states seem good for Joe Biden. However, things may turn upside down especially when Trump is involved.
The recent polls show that Joe Biden has a big lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan which are the three industrial states where Donald Trump won by margins of less than 1% to cling to the 2016 victory. Here’s a table with the latest results and a comparison of the current and former leads.
Looking at these results and comparing them to the 2016 trends, it’s easy to notice that Joe Biden has a major lead in many states. Unless there are some major changes in the weeks to come, Joe Biden may claim victory. But remember things can change especially when Trump is a subject.